The odds of making the NHL (according to these stats) are 1 in 811.
The odds of becoming a doctor in Canada are 1 in 1724.
Your kids are twice as likely to play in the NHL than to becomea doctor. If that sounds silly, it is because it is silly.
The graph below is called a Dream Killer Post. It is currently floating around social media. It is meant to scare you, dissuade you and to kill your hockey dreams at any level or age.
Most of us have experienced that youth coach who says “No one here is going to the NHL, lets just have fun.”
Look at this from a different perspective. Would anyone want the principle at an elementary school assembly proclaiming no one from that school is going to be Prime Minister (president), a lawyer, or a doctor, so having fun should be the priority?
There are 5,000,000 K-12 students in Canada.
There are 2,900 medical school graduates in Canada annually.
So using the same logic from the graph, only 1 out of 1,724 kids graduate from med school. Compare that to the NHL odds that of 1 out of every 811 will play in the NHL.
Your odds of playing in the NHL are TWICE as good as becoming a doctor in Canada.
There are flaws in both sets of statistics. Climbing a mountain takes one step at a time. A beginner needs to become a Mite player. Odds are strong that that will happen for the overwhelming majority of kids that like the sport. With each ascending step- mite to squirt, squirt to peewee, and so on- the odds are pretty good that you can make it.
By looking at the process step by step, and applying the same statistical logic as the graph, the outlook completely changes.
There are roughly 1500 players in the Major Junior System (CHL). On opening night of 2019-2020 season, there were 339 NHLers with CHL experience. Using the same statistical logic as the graph, about 1 out of every 4 make the jump. Very acceptable odds!
You can see the patten. To graduate med school, you first have to pass kindergarten, then 1st grade…
Each small step is achievable.
Let kids dream.
Focus on the next step.
Jeff Kolcon is the founder of Junior Hockey Advisor and is an expert in player advancement. Junior Hockey Advisor does not represent players or families. It is an unbiased educational tool that utilizes statistical analysis and industry experience to help individuals understand and clarify paths to junior hockey and beyond.